Geels, F. (2015) ‘The arduous transition to low-carbon energy: A multi-level analysis of renewable electricity niches and resilient regimes’, in Fagerberg, J., Laestadius, S. & Martin, B. R. (eds.) The Triple Challenge for Europe: Economic Development, Climate Change, and Governance, Oxford University Press, pp. 90-117.

This chapter discusses the arduous transition to low-carbon energy supply, with a focus on electricity generation. The chapter first makes an interpretive assessment of global and European developments, addressing not only the expansion of renewable electricity capacity (wind, solar-PV, biomass) and city initiatives, but also the ongoing expansion of coal-fired power generation, the shale gas revolution, and conflicting trends in nuclear energy (phase-out and expansion). Using the multi-level perspective on socio-technical transitions, the chapter assesses that the resilience of existing regimes implies that windows of opportunity for rapid diffusion of green niche-innovations are limited. Subsequently, the chapter zooms in on the UK to further analyze the resilience of existing electricity generation regimes, focusing on strategies of utilities and national government, which are shown to be firmly committed to nuclear, gas and clean coal (with the promise of CCS). The analysis shows that incumbent actors both adapt to climate change pressures (through innovation) and resist major reorientation (through political strategies). The chapter ends by discussing wider challenges. Firstly, ‘emergent’ market-driven transitions are likely to unfold too slowly to limit climate change to two degrees. Secondly, the world’s proven fossil-fuel reserves far exceed the amount of carbon that can be burned to stay within the 2-degree target. These challenges imply, firstly, that low-carbon transition are not just about stimulating ‘green’ alternatives, but also about actively managing the decline of fossil-fuel based systems. Secondly, much stronger roles for government and bolder policies are required to bring about low-carbon transitions at the required speed.

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2015